Saturday, 31 August 2013

Karachi Stock Exchange: Cenment Sector Analysis

Cements: Dark Clouds

  • Our channel checks confirm that Lucky Cement, the largest cement manufacturer in Pakistan, has resigned from APCMA.

  • We believe that this may be in connection with the recent power tariff increase and disagreements among cement manufacturers related to passing on of cost increase.

  • This may have detrimental effect on cement price unless issues among APCMA members are resolved.

  • Historically  speaking,  issues  among  cement  manufacturers  led  to  price  wars  and  a  risk  of  that  happening  again  might  be  evident from recent events.

  • We advise caution at current levels and will revisit our investment case on the cement sector.

  • We have done a sensitivity of cement price on earnings of Elixir’s cement universe below.

Karachi Stock Exchange Analysis

Corrective Theme – Sell The Pullback
Short-Term: A Doji candle at 23.6% retracement (22,079) to 16,036 to 23,946 ascend emits neutral implications. Continue to sight possibility for a minute pullback towards 22,556 level. Conversely, a relapse towards 22,024 would threat renewed downside towards 21,823 and 21,497 levels. Near-term theme remains corrective. Sell on strength!

General View: Easing weekly momentum data coupled with a double-top pattern precursors intermediate correction ahead. This can potentially drag (wave 4) the index down towards 20,924 – 19,057 levels where the index would enter the 38.2% to 61.8% retracement zone of Jan 2013 to July 2013 rally (16,063 to 23,946). However, such correction will not reverse the course of primary bull trend, keeping the long-term trajectory intact for 25,000 and 27,270 – 29,039 levels. Investors should keep enough buying power to capitalize at such correction. We find strong potential in ENGRO, PSO, PTC, SNGP, NRL, EPCL, FABL and BOP.

Karachi Stock Exchange: Today's Morning News

No default in next 3 years, says Dar
Federal  Finance  Minister  Ishaq  Dar  said  on  Thursday  that  the government was making its best efforts to stabilize the exchange rate regime, and asked banks  and  exchange  companies  to  help  strengthen  the  local currency  as well  as  the  economy. While  the  minister  appreciated  exchange companies role to reduce dollar price gap between the open market and inter bank, he did not offer any details to stop steep fall of local currency in the inter bank market. He was hopeful that loans from IMF would remove any fear of default that would ultimately help local currency to get strength. The finance minister reportedly asked foreign banks for dollar-based loans and offered a lucrative rate of LIBOR plus 5pc per annum.

NAB directs Ogra chief to recover Rs13b from SNGPL
The  National  Accountability  Bureau  (NAB)  has  directed  the  incumbent OGRA Chairman Saeed Ahmed Khan through a notice under section 18(d) & 33  (c)  of  National  Accountability  Ordinance  (NAO)  1999,  to  recover  an amount of Rs 13 billion of public money from the Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL). The NAB also directed him to provide certified copies of all the  decisions  of  the  competent  authority  who  appointed him  as Chairman OGRA.  The  NAB  noticed  that  despite  the  vacation  of  stay  orders  from the Lahore High Court (LHC) the OGRA has failed to recover the Rs 13 billion of public money from the SNGPL, even after the lapse of seven months passed the  orders of  LHC.  The  investigation  bureau  directed  the incumbent Chairman OGRA to recover the said amount through issuance of revised notifications within two working days.

NBP, UBank sign MoU
Retirees can now draw their pensions from 10,000 outlets of Ufone and ordinary  citizens  can  even  pay  income  tax  from  their  mobile  phones after U Microfinance  Bank  Limited  (UBank)  and  National  Bank  of Pakistan (NBP) signed  an  agreement  which  aims  “to  change  the  way people  will perform banking transactions”. A memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed between NBP  and UBank on  Thursday in this regard. Under the MoU,  NBP will  provide  personal  and  corporate  solutions through branchless  banking services to its customers across the country. Punjab govt part of MoU for coal-based projects worth $5 bnA ceremony for the signing of MoUs between federal, Punjab governments, China  National Power  and  Q-Investment  Qatar  for  over  6,600  MW  coal-based projects worth more than $5 billion was held on Thursday. Under the tripartite agreement,  10  plants  of 660  megawatt  each  will  be  set  up  at Gadani. The  projects  of  3000 megawatt  will  be  completed  within  first  30 months while the remaining projects of 3600 megawatt will be executed in the next two and a half years. The chief minister said this agreement between Pakistan, Qatar and China will prove to be a milestone  in  energy  sector  and  all  out efforts  will  be  made for  the  early  completion  of  this  project  for  power generation from imported coal.

Lawrencepur Woolen and Textile Mills suspends operations
Dawood Lawrencepur Limited (DLL), the pioneers of textile composite units in Pakistan, has announced to suspend opera-tions of Lawrencepur Woolen and Textile Mills with immediate effect. DLL is one of the few woolen and worsted fabric spin-ning  and  weaving  units  in the  region. Lawrencepur woolen  and worsted fabric, the  most  prestigious  names in  French and Italian fashion industry, will now operate under licence. “Due to fall in demand and its adverse impact on the worsted fabric industry in Pakistan, the board of directors of the company has decided to suspend operations of Lawrencepur Woolen and Textile  Mills  with  immediate  effect,”  Hafsa  Shamsie, company secretary  of  DLL,  said.  “However,  the  ‘Lawrencepur’  brand will continue to operate under the licence,” she added. The decision is in line with the company’s strategic intent to focus on the  renewable  energy  business, development of  which is  vital  for  the  country’s economic  growth.  The board has  also  ap-proved a voluntary separation scheme for the management and non-management employees of Lawrencepur Woolen and Textile Mills.

Bike assemblers body calls for new auto sector policy
Pakistan’s new government should take on board all stakeholders and market players while formulating new policies related to  the  auto  sector,  the Association of Pakistan  Motorcycle  Assemblers  (APMA) said.  This  was particularly important  if  the government seriously want to generate revenues, APMA spokesman Muhammad Sabir Shaikh. APMA comprises of companies who are specifically involved in the  assembly of Chinese made motor bikes. Speaking in this context, Shaikh said that the finance minister should also look into the issues of incorrect declaration, under invoicing and smuggling. He added that if the government makes the necessary changes in the policy of the auto sector, it will earn revenues of more than Rs.1,000 crores annually. Shaikh said this amount was being wasted at the moment due to of  incorrect policies. He  went on  to say that  the  retailers  are  not  against  the  imposition  of sales tax,  but  actually  the  manufacturers,  importers,  smugglers  are against this move. In the last 10 years, there was huge evasion and under invoicing of imported parts due to non registration in sales tax regime by auto sector dealers all over Pakistan. Shaikh said all zero rated imports must be fixed at minimum five per cent customs duty. All the Input Output Ratio Certificates (IORCs), which are valid up to June 30, 2013 should not be re-validated and one customs duty on imported parts and one customs duty on CBU imports should be fixed at 25 per cent

Friday, 30 August 2013

Karachi Stock Exchange: NBP - Result Preview 2QCY13

National bank of Pakistan is going to announce its 2QCY13 shortly. We expect the bank to post a PAT of Rs. 3.80bn translating into EPS of Rs.  1.79, taking 1HCY13 EPS to Rs. 3.21.

Key Quarterly Financial Highlights: 
We expect the topline of the bank to shrink, consistent with the industry, on account of lower margins.  However, growth in earnings assets and significant lower provisioning will result in higher NII after provisioning as compared to corresponding quarter of CY12.  The bank’s non markup income is expected to grow robustly further supporting the bottom line owing to expectations of higher gains in sale of investments.

Outlook And Valuations:
We expect earnings growth post 2013  owing to increase in interest rates.  However, NBP is expected to face asset quality issue in a high interest rate environment.  Henceforth, we think the gains from increase in interest rates will be limited due to higher provisioning expense. The bank is currently trading at 0.83x its CY13(E) P/BV.  Based on year ended Dec 2013 value of Rs. 62 the scrip provides an upside of 9%. The bank also offers a dividend yield of 9.3% taking total stock return to over 18%.   We have positive stance on the scrip.