Monday, 7 October 2013

Karachi Stock Exchange: Market Commentary

Market Commentary
KSE-100 concluded the week on a dismal note losing 66 points to close at 22,086. Fears of a withdrawal by the GoP over its earlier decision to raise power tariff upon possible ruling by the Supreme Court against that decision led the decline on the bourse. 

Key Data
KSE-30 16777.11 -57.77 -0.34%
KSE-100 22085.96 -66.39 -0.3%
USD/PKR 106.32 +0.26 +0.25%
NYMEX Crude Future (USD) 103.38 +0.19 +0.18%
Gold (USD) 1313.2 -2.6 -0.2%
FIPI (USD `000) -87367.57 +1675.91 +1.88%
KIBOR (6 months / %) 9.52% 0 0%

Notable Price Movers
Sym                 % Chg             StDev change
NCPL               4.95                 4.09
PIAA                13.55               2.94
FECTC             (4.31)              2.44
SNGP              3.25                 2.03
ATRL                (2.91)              1.85

Notable Shares Traded
Sym                 Turnover         StDev change
NCPL               5,540,000          5.28
NCL                 6,253,500          3.72
NETSOL           2,302,500          2.71
TELE                 8,587,500          1.50

Top Stories
Þ     Weekly inflation hits 9 percent
Þ     ‘Remittances expected to reach $15 billion’
Þ     Cotton market: prices improve on active demand by mills
Þ     Hike in power tariff: cost of production may increase by 21 percent: APTMA chief
Þ     Notification withdrawn: Nepra asked to re-determine tariff
Þ     Power tariff: Abid says new summary to be sent to Nepra
Þ     Pakistan due to produce 14m cotton bales in FY14
Þ     FBR raises GST rate to 19% on over 40 items
Þ     PSO buys 0.4m tonnes gasoline for Oct-Jan
Þ     M2 posts slight decline till Sept 20 in FY14
Þ     Cement industry sales register 2% growth in Q1 of FY14
Þ     Oil prices rise on Gulf of Mexico shutdown
Þ     Banks losing interest in govt papers


Verdict
In the wake of ruling by the Supreme Court against the hike in power tariff by the GoP coupled with hike GST over a number of items seems all set to keep the market volatile over the next session. We advise investors to remain cautious.

Friday, 4 October 2013

Todays News And Its Impact On Market

31 Enterprises Up For Sale
The  government  directed the Privatization Commission on  Thursday to immediately  start  the  process  for  sale  of  31  Public  Sector  Entities  (PSEs) through  initial  and  secondary  public  offering  and  transfer  of  26  per  cent shares, along with management control, to the private sector. The decision was taken at a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Privatization, presided over by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, to comply with a structural benchmark agreed to under the IMF programmed. The companies cleared for divestment include the Oil  and Gas Development Company Limited, Pakistan Petroleum Limited, Mari Gas, Pak-Arab Refinery, Pakistan State Oil, Sui Southern  Gas  Company  Limited, Sui  Northern  Gas  Pipelines  Limited, Pakistan  International  Airlines, PIA-Roosevelt  Hotel,  New York, Pakistan  Railways, Gujranwala Electric Power Company, Lahore Electric Supply Company, Islamabad Electric Supply Company, Faisalabad Electric Supply Company, Northern Electric  Generation  Company,  Pakistan  Steel  Mills,  National  Power  Construction  Company  and  Pakistan  National  Shipping  Corporation. The  financial sector entities selected for sale in the first phase include National Bank of  Pakistan, First  Women  Bank,  Small  and  Medium  Enterprises  Bank,  National Investment Trust Limited, National Insurance Company Limited, Pakistan  Reinsurance  Company  Limited,  State  Life  Insurance  Corporation  and House  Building  Finance  Corporation.  The  Civil  Aviation  Authority,  Karachi Port  Trust,  Port  Qasim  Authority  and  National  Highway  Authority  are  also on the list.

3G, 4G, LTE Up For Grabs
The government has finalized the policy guidelines for auction of the “next generation technology spectrum”, signifying its departure from 3G range while offering a technology neutral band to investors. Headed by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, an Advisory Committee on Auction of telecom spectrum discussed at length the recommendations submitted by the Ministry of Information Technology regarding policy directives to introduce next generation Mobile Services In Pakistan.  It  was  the  first  meeting  of  the  advisory committee  for the  auction  of  next  generation  telecom  spectrums, marking the beginning of a process that had remained controversial in the past. The previous Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) government too had approved a policy directive,  and  even  issued  an  information  memorandum  and  auction calendar,  but  the  process  became  controversial.  The Pakistan  Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) government had included Rs120 billion as non-tax revenue  income  on  the  account  of  auction  of  3G  licenses  in  the  Federal Budget 2013-14 and wants to complete the process before the close of the current financial year on June 30, 2014. In a significant policy shift, the new government  decided  to  keep  the  spectrum  technology  neutral  and  has named  it  “next  generation  technology  spectrum”,  which  offers  a  range  of opportunities to the investors who could provide 3G, 4G or Linear Technology.

NEPRA Cuts Power Tariff For KESC
The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) on Thursday reduced the electricity rates of Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) by 97 paisa and Rs1.63 per unit for October and November, respectively. According to a notification issued by the power regulator, the reduction  in  tariff was  necessitated by  lower oil  prices in  the  international market  in  the  month of  April, May  and  June  this year  and  improvement  in  Karachi  Electric  Supply  Company’s  energy  mix.  It said the decision for tariff reduction under monthly fuel price adjustment was taken after a public hearing in Karachi on Aug 15. Under the notification, the NEPRA approved a reduction of 27 paisa and 72 paisa per unit reduction for the month April and May. As a result, the consumer tariff would be lower by 97 paisa per unit against reference fuel price during the billing month of October 2013.

Users Of 200 Units To Get Rs 167 Billion Subsidy
Finance  Minister  Ishaq  Dar  has  informed  the  Prime  Minister  that  Rs  167  billion  subsidy  would  be  provided  to  protect  the domestic users using up to 200 units of electricity in the current fiscal year. The Finance Minister called on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Thursday and briefed him about the cost of subsidy on the budget and recent increase in electricity tariff by the  government  that  evoked  criticism  and  landed  the  matter  in  the  Supreme  Court. He  informed  the  Prime  Minister  that  almost  70  percent  electricity  is  produced  from  furnace oil,  which  is  very  expensive  and  only  30  percent  is  produced  from hydel. The Prime Minister stressed that low income groups must be protected at all costs. The government has earmarked a subsidy of Rs 165 billion for Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) on account of Inter-Disco Tariff Differential and Rs 55 billion for Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) for the current fiscal year.

First Gas Delivery Pipeline At Latif Field Inaugurated
In a major development on energy front, Pakistan made headway in integrated gas supply chain, as Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif inaugurated the first 47 kms gas delivery pipeline connecting four wells of Latif Field Development with Sawan Processing Plant. This iconic project led by OMV will result in 100 mmcfd targeted supply of gas to SSGCL and SNGPL. The inaugural ceremony of the project was simultaneously held at Sawan Central Processing Plant, Sindh and the Prime Minister House in Islamabad. The US $150 million project is contributing a precious three percent into the national gas grid to help meet the country's growing domestic  and industrial  requirement. the project has been completed  in record time of 15 months only due  to  tireless  efforts  of  the  entire  project  team.  He  appreciated  OMV  for  immense  contribution  to  Pakistan's  Economy since  commencement  of  its  operations  in  1990,  with  its  major  hydrocarbon  discoveries  like  Sawan,  Miano  and  Latif  Gas Fields,  which are currently  producing  over 360  million cubic  feet of  gas  per  day.  The Prime Minister said supply of indigenous gas was a major component of total energy mix and mainstay of economy.

Forex Reserves Fall By $287.3 Million

The country's liquid foreign exchange reserves posted a decline of $287.3 million during last week because of debt payment. The State Bank of Pakistan Thursday reported that the country's total forex reserves fell to $9.923 billion as on September 27, 2013.  Previously it stood at $10.21 billion a week earlier. Reserves held by SBP posted a declining trend, while banks' reserves witnessed some surge during the period under review. Reserves held by SBP dropped by $326.3 million to $4.602 billion down from $4.928 billion. Similarly, reserves held by banks mounted by $39 million to $5.321billion as September 27, 2013 as compared to $5.282 billion as on September 20, 2013.

United Bank Limited on their way back to glory

The  State  Bank  of  Pakistan  (SBP)  announced  a  50bps  hike  in  the discount  rate  to  9.5%  in  its  September  2013  Monetary  Policy Statement  (MPS) against  market  expectation  of  maintaining  the status quo. This brings much awaited relief for the banking sector specifically to the large banks which have seen a continuous decline in core earnings due to tighter spreads on the back of monetary easing of up to 300bps since July 2012. Rise in inflation has been intimated by the SBP, we anticipate further rise in discount rate to 150bps by the end of 2014. We hereby revise our estimates incorporating the hike of 50bps in our models.

United Bank Limited (UBL)  has  the  second  highest  local  CASA  deposit  base  after  MCB Bank Limited (MCB)  and this potentially will result in a healthy 32.3% increase its Non Interest Income (NII) in CY14 due to rising spreads. The bank will be less sensitive to asset quality shocks  in  the  increased  interest  rate  environment  because  of  its  prudent lending policies. Bank’s diversification via international operation provides a cushion from potential loss of currency devaluation. We anticipate United Bank Limited (UBL) to report bottom-line of Rs. 20.35bn in CY14 translating into EPS of Rs. 16.62. Please refer to the valuation matrix on the following page for key annual financials.

2QCY13 Result Highlights:
During  2QCY13,  Net Interest Income (NII)  declined  sharply  due  to  lower  realized  interest  rates  and provisioning  against  Non Performing Loan’s (NPLs).  Increase in non core earnings about 33% primarily comes from gain on sale of securities. The bank posted earnings of Rs. 3.52/share translating into PAT of Rs. 4.3bn for the quarter. Furthermore, the bank announced an interim cash payout of Rs. 2.0/share.

Valuation:

United Bank Limited (UBL) stock is currently trading at CY14(E) P/Bv of 1.70x yielding significant upside to  justified  P/Bv  multiple  of  1.99x. We reiterate Positive stance for  the stock with a Dec-14 TP of 166.45/share.

Allied Bank Limited Way Back To Glory

The  State  Bank  of  Pakistan  (SBP)  announced  a  50bps  hike  in  the discount  rate  to  9.5%  in  its  September  2013  Monetary  Policy Statement  (MPS) against  market  expectation  of  maintaining  the status quo. This brings much awaited relief for the banking sector specifically to the large banks which have seen a continuous decline in core earnings due to tighter spreads on the back of monetary easing of up to 300bps since July 2012. Rise in inflation has been intimated by the SBP, we anticipate further rise in discount rate to 150bps by the end of 2014. We hereby revise our estimates incorporating the hike of 50bps in our models.

Allied Bank Limited (ABL) is expected to post 28.37% higher earnings for 2014 on the back of increased interest rates. Bank’s Non Performing Loan’s (NPLs) declined 4% during 1HCY13 improving its asset quality. Going forward, we expect limited asset quality deterioration despite increase in interest rates. Allied Bank Limited (ABL) has one of the best return on equities among the tier 1 bank while its lower beta justifies a relatively higher P/Bv multiples. Please refer to the valuation matrix below for key financials.

2QCY13 Result Highlights:
Allied Bank Limited (ABL) reported 11.6% higher Net Interest Income (NII) after provisioning on relatively lowers provisioning against Non Performing Loan’s (NPLs) during the 2QCY13. However, the top-line growth was off-set  by  decline  in  non-core  income  witnessed  during  the  quarter  under  review mainly  because  of  lower  gains  on  sale  of  securities  and  dividend  income.  Bank posted Rs. 2.59/share earnings translating into a PAT of Rs. 2.7bn for the quarter. Furthermore, the bank also paid an interim dividend of Rs. 1.25/share.

Valuation:
The  stock  is  currently  trading  at  CY14(E)  P/Bv  of  1.28x  resulting  in  significant potential  upside  to  its  justified  P/BV  multiple  of  1.90x.  We maintain a Positive stance for the stock with Dec-14 TP of Rs. 117.51/share.  

Bank Alfalah Limited on their way back to glory!

The  State  Bank  of  Pakistan  (SBP)  announced  a  50bps  hike  in  the discount  rate  to  9.5%  in  its  September  2013  Monetary  Policy Statement  (MPS) against  market  expectation  of  maintaining  the status quo. This brings much awaited relief for the banking sector specifically to the large banks which have seen a continuous decline in core earnings due to tighter spreads on the back of monetary easing of up to 300bps since July 2012. Rise in inflation has been intimated by the SBP, we anticipate further rise in discount rate to 150bps by the end of 2014. We hereby revise our estimates incorporating the hike of 50bps in our models.

We expect Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL) to post considerable growth in earnings for CY14 after  the  hike  in  interest  rates  as  its  core  earnings  is  more  sensitive  to interest rate. We think that asset quality will deteriorate slightly albeit not as witnessed on the previous tight monetary policy cycle. Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL) also set to be a beneficiary of the potential sale of Warid Telecom as it holds 8.24% stake in Warid. The bank has completely provided for its investment against its stake in Warid Telecom.  Although, we haven’t incorporated the impact of the potential deal in our current estimates, the deal will potentially increase the book value and target price of Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL). Please refer to our flash note on the subject “Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL) - Impact of ADG Sale of Warid Telecom on Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL)” dated 5th August for potential capital gains.

2QCY13 Result Highlights:
2QCY13 result witnessed a decline in core earnings on the back of tight spreads and higher provisioning. Whereas non core earnings have grown 25% mainly due to higher gains on sale of securities. The bank post earnings of Rs. 0.69/share translating into PAT of Rs. 932mn for the quarter.

Valuation:

Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL) stock is currently trading at CY14(E) P/Bv of 0.91x.  The stock yields a significant upside on our Dec-14 TP of Rs. 33.02/share based on its justified P/Bv multiple of 1.29x. We reiterate Positive stance for the stock.

National Bank Limited on their way back to glory!

The  State  Bank  of  Pakistan  (SBP)  announced  a  50bps  hike  in  the discount  rate  to  9.5%  in  its  September  2013  Monetary  Policy Statement  (MPS) against  market  expectation  of  maintaining  the status quo. This brings much awaited relief for the banking sector specifically to the large banks which have seen a continuous decline in core earnings due to tighter spreads on the back of monetary easing of up to 300bps since July 2012. Rise in inflation has been intimated by the SBP, we anticipate further rise in discount rate to 150bps by the end of 2014. We hereby revise our estimates incorporating the hike of 50bps in our models.

National Bank Limited (NBP) is the biggest bank in terms of advances which represents 18.7% of total industry share.  Although  we  flag  a  potential  risk  on  asset  quality  side,  we  have  noticed  a  significant  growth  in  provisioning against Non Performing Loan’s (NPLs) during 1HCY13 improving the bank’s coverage ratio. We expect  asset  quality  to  get  worse  due  to  its  aggressive  lending  approach whereas; bank’s huge advances will ingest the shock of adverse  asset quality.  We expect  CY14  earnings  to  grow  26.7%  on  the back  of  increased  policy  rate  and  improved  spreads. Please refer to the valuation matrix on the following page.

2QCY13 Result Highlights:
During  2QCY 13, Net Interest Income (NII) declined sharply due to lower realized interest rates  and heavy provisioning  against Non Performing Loan’s (NPLs). Increase in non core earnings primarily comes from gain on sale of securities. Reversals in taxes provide some cushion to bottom-line. The bank post earnings of Rs. 1.41/share translating into PAT of Rs. 2.99bn for the quarter.

Valuation:

NBP is currently trading at CY14(E) P/Bv of 0.69x yielding significant upside to its justified P/Bv of 0.87x.   We reiterate Positive stance for the stock with Dec-14 TP of 66.17/share.

MCB Bank Limited on their way back to glory!

The  State  Bank  of  Pakistan  (SBP)  announced  a  50bps  hike  in  the discount  rate  to  9.5%  in  its  September  2013  Monetary  Policy Statement  (MPS) against  market  expectation  of  maintaining  the status quo. This brings much awaited relief for the banking sector specifically to the large banks which have seen a continuous decline in core earnings due to tighter spreads on the back of monetary easing of up to 300bps since July 2012. Rise in inflation has been intimated by the SBP, we anticipate further rise in discount rate to 150bps by the end of 2014. We hereby revise our estimates incorporating the hike of 50bps in our models.

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) sets FY14 inflation target at 11-12%:
Inflation has been on declining trend since December 2010; as a result, the CPI in FY13 came down to 7.4%. The deceleration in year over year (YoY) CPI inflation came from lagged effect of economic slowdown, stable international prices of major imports coupled with the modest exchange rates and bank financed subsidies of the government. While after the new government’s fiscal budget, YoY CPI inflation jumped to 8.5% in August 2013 compare to 5.9% in June 2013.  Swift settlement of outstanding stock of energy sector circular debt, reduction in electricity tariff related subsidies and introduction of some taxation measures will lead to an increase in CPI inflation to 11-12% by the end of FY14.

Key Risks:
MPS states that for last few years most of loans were used to fulfill the working capital requirement while loans availed for the fixed investment showed  retirement  even  in  the  then  lower  interest  rate environment, we flag  a  potential  decline  in  advances  in  the  current  rising  interest  rate scenario. Moreover there might be an upside risk in Net Interest Income (NII) for all banks if the interest rates rise more than our anticipation as the SBP has set targeted inflation for FY14 at 11-12%. Furthermore, we flag higher Non Performing Loans (NPLs) for all banks.

Holding the highest CASA in the industry i.e.; 88%, MCB Bank Limited (MCB) will potentially benefit the most in increased interest rate environment as cost of funds will not raise vis-à-vis interest earnings.  MCB Bank Limited (MCB) is best in its cost control strategy. The bank  also  witnessed  significant  improvement in its asset quality over the past two quarters and we continue to  factor  in  improvement  in  asset  quality  for  the  bank.  We expect MCB Bank Limited (MCB) to post CY14 earnings Rs. 26.15/share translating into a PAT of Rs.  26.5bn.  Please  refer  to  the  valuation  matrix  on  the  following page.

2QCY13 Result Highlights:
Core earnings witnessed a sharp decline during 2QCY13 whereas reversals in provisions safeguard bottom-line coupled with 25% higher noncore earnings on the back of higher gains on sale of securities. The bank posted an EPS of Rs 6.05 translating into a PAT of Rs 6.12bn.

Valuation:

MCB Bank Limited (MCB) is currently trading at CY14(E) P/Bv of 2.42x.  Based on our target exit P/Bv multiple of 2.58x for Dec-14, our target price arrives at Rs. 314, we have a Neutral stance for the stock.

Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK) result preview FY13

In today's Karachi Stock Exchange Analysis, we present the result preview of Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK)  for  the  period  of  FY13  coupled  with  our  outlook  and  recommendation on the scrip.

Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK) to post EPS Rs30.28 and DPS of Rs7 in FY13:
We expect Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK) to post profit after tax (PAT) of Rs9.8bn, translating into an EPS of Rs30.28 during FY13, showing a massive jump of 44%YoY compared to PAT  of  Rs6.8bn  (EPS  Rs20.97)  during  the  same  period  last  year.  Company's cement  dispatches  are  estimated  to  swell  up  to  6.0mn  tons  (up  1.5%YoY), while  local  dispatches  are  expected  to  settle  at  3.7mn  tons  (up  0.70%YoY). Exports on the other hand are expected to show an increase of 3%YoY to 2.3mn tons.  The top line of the company is expected  to  post  a  hefty jump  of 16%YoY  to  Rs38.8bn  mainly  on  the  back  of  11%YoY  surge  in  retention  prices. Coupled with this, 20%YoY decline in coal prices is expected to further boost the company's gross margin by a solid 642bpsYoY to 45% in FY13. We expect the company to announce dividend of Rs7/share with these results. On a quarterly basis, Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK) is expected to post a minimal growth of 4%QoQ in profit  after  tax  to  Rs2.8bn  (EPS  Rs8.69)  for  4QFY13  as  compared  to  Rs2.7bn (EPS 8.32). Led by a 2%QoQ increase in domestic cement prices, net sales of the company are expected to grow by 8%QoQ to Rs11.0bn. With ~5.4%QoQ decline in coal prices, gross margins of the company are expected to have improved by 113bps QoQ to 46%. Company's finance cost is expected to be around the same as last quarter.

Recommendation 'Hold' with Jun-14 TP of Rs289/share:

The  company is  continuing  upgrading  its  plant  efficiency as  it  is  replacing  its existing  cement  grinding  mills  and  packing  plant  with  European  latest  technology to enhance its efficiency and reduce the cost of production. With better  cement  prices  and  low  coal  price  scenario  the  company  is  expected  to maintain its margins going forward. Moreover its diversification towards chemical business is also another positive factor which is likely to help the company boost its profitability. Currently, the scrip is trading at forward PE multiple of 8.3x with dividend yield of 3.1% at FY14 earning basis. We recommend 'Hold' for Lucky Cement Limited (LUCK), as currently the share is offering a potential upside of ~13% against our per share target price for Jun-14 of Rs289.

Pakistan Oil and Gas Sector

Pakistan Oil & Gas Sector FY14E to better OMCs fortunes; APL preferred:
·        We believe FY14E is likely to herald liquidity and profitability improvement for the downstream oil sector (OMCs), moving on from a tough past few years.
·    Key areas of focus are likely to be (1) Pickup in sales volumes, (2) marketing margin uplift, (3) progress on circular debt reforms and (4) M&A in the sector.
·       We project Pakistan oil consumption to grow by 5% YoY in FY14E vis-à-vis an average decline of 1% p.a. in the last 3 years, while progress on circular debt reforms will be critical in determining the sector’s fortunes. 
·        We maintain our preference for Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) over Pakistan State Oil (PSO), given the formers attractive FY14E dividend yield of 9% vs. the latter’s 2%.

FY14E to better FY13’s liquidity and profitability:
We believe FY14E is likely to herald profitability and liquidity improvement for the oil marketing (OMC) sector; moving on from a tough past few years. Key areas of focus for the sector appear to be (1) Pick up in industry sales volumes, (2) uplift in marketing margin, (3) progress on circular debt reforms by the government and (4) mergers & acquisitions (M&A) within the Pak OMC space.

Key areas of focus in FY14E:
(1) Pick up in industry volumes: We expect industry sales volumes to improve by 5% YoY in FY14E vis-à-vis an average 1% decline p.a. in the last 3 years. The recent measures taken by the govt. to reduce power load-shedding in the country are likely to deliver 6% YoY growth in Furnace Oil (FO) sales. Gas shortages and shrinking CNG/Petrol price differential are likely to drive up Motor Gasoline (MOGAS) sales by 5% YoY, while we expect High Speed Diesel (HSD) to witness an uptick of 3% YoY. At the same time, we flag that complete resumption of NATO supplies could boost Jet Fuel volumes. In 2MFY14 petroleum product sales volumes are up 5% YoY on the back of 11% YoY growth in FO volumes, where August 2013 sales have increased by 14% YoY though are down by 12% MoM.

(2) Margin uplift: In its recent analyst briefing, PSO had indicated possible increase in marketing margins on white oil products. This will, if materialized, somewhat compensate the industry for exchange losses, where PKR has already slipped by 5% vs. the USD YTD FY14. Note that APL remains relatively immune to exchange losses owing to its local sourcing of products. We estimate 2-3% earnings sensitivity for every 5% hike in marketing margins for APL and PSO.

(3)  Progress on circular debt reforms: We believe progress on circular debt reforms will be pivotal in determining the sector’s fortunes. The government has raised power tariffs to reduce tariff shortfall with further hikes still on the cards, however overall improvement in the efficiency of the power sector (line losses, bill collection) will be critical.

(4) Mergers and Acquisitions: Industry consolidation remains one of the key themes in the sector, where recently we have seen Chevron Pakistan selling its operations to PARCO. We understand that Shell is also reviewing its portfolio in Pakistan due to prevailing low margins, and possible announcement of its exit may spark speculation on possible sale price and buyer.

APL our preferred play over PSO:

We maintain our preference for Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) (TP: Rs570 - Hold; FY14E EPS & P/E: Rs66.61 and 8.9x) over Pakistan State Oil (PSO) (TP: Rs275 - Sell; FY14E EPS & P/E: Rs63.06 and 4.9x) given (1) APL’s attractive FY14E dividend yield of 9% vs. PSO’s 2% FY14E dividend yield and (2) APL’s relative immunity to exchange losses and circular debt.