Sunday, 1 September 2013

Karachi Stock Exchange: Weekly Review and Analysis

KSE-100 Index witnessed a significant decline of 2.44%WoW to close at 22,161 points. The market witnessed high selling pressure early in the week as Western powers trumped up the rhetoric for military action in Syria leading oil prices to shoot up and putting regional equity markets under pressure as well. In this regard, panic selling pushed up average daily traded volumes in the market by 3.87%WoW to 204mn shares. Some confidence returned to the equity markets worldwide towards the end of the week as Britain backed out of a possible strike on Syria. Other major news flows affecting market sentiment included i) increase in gas tariffs for CPPs by 17.4% to PkR573/mmbtu, ii) resignation of LUCK from APCMA, iii) reported agreement with IMF over delay in increase of discount rate and iv) a delay in the announcement of the MPS by the SBP to Sep 13’13. Top gainers this week within the AKD Universe were KAPCO (+5.8%),  UBL (+5.2%), ENGRO (+3.1%), HUBC (+2.7%) and OGDC (+2.3%). On the flipside, declining scrips included DAWH (-11.9%), PSO (-11.0%), NCL (-10.7%), PTC (-9.0%) and MCB (-8.2%). Trading activity was led by BOP, FCCL, MLCF, JSCL, and NBP.

Cement sector is likely to remain in the limelight next week where we expect cement producers with CPPs like LUCK and DGKC to outperform the sector. IMF board meeting on Sep 04’13 to approve the bailout package for Pakistan is likely to alleviate pressure on the foreign exchange rate. On the economic front, key release for the week would be the Aug’13 CPI where estimate inflation to come in at 8.7%YoY/1.3%MoM.

Cements: Concrete basis for bottom fishing, ( Aug 30, 2013)
Cement sector stocks came under heavy selling pressure yesterday (3.9% decline on average) as investors reacted sharply to rumors of a possible derailment in industry pricing. By way of background, cement producers without CPPs are at a relative disad-vantage resulting in their push for an increase  in cement prices so as to pass on the recent increase in electricity tariffs. In this regard, while LUCK has tendered its resigna-tion from the APCMA in opposition to any  immediate price hike, our discussion with industry experts suggests that the current pricing consensus as well as production quo-tas will prevail which should allow cement sector stocks to register a swift rebound. Furthermore, price increases may occur beyond the next month or so, dovetailing with anticipated improved demand dynamics. The larger, more efficient players, particularly those with CPPs will likely be clear winners. While our investment case for LUCK is under review, DGKC (FY14F P/E: 5.3x) offers an upside of 39% to our TP of PkR108/share. Buy!                  

Jul'13 Fertilizer offtake update, ( Aug 28, 2013)
According to official statistics released by the National Fertilizer Development Centre (NFDC), urea offtake for 7MCY13 has clocked in at 3.17mn tons, flat as compared to last year, while DAP offtake during the same period has increased by 36%YoY to 504k tons. Among major players, urea offtake of  ENGRO posted significant growth of 59%YoY to 740k tons during 7MCY13 while offtake of imported urea declined by 37%YoY. DAP offtake of FFBL stood at 297k tons during 7MCY13, a robust growth of 86%YoY while CAN and NP offtakes of FATIMA were also up by 29%YoY and 43%YoY, respectively. In Jul'13, sequential offtakes across the industry faced a decline while urea off-take for ENGRO stood out with a growth of 75%YoY due to increased gas supply. Go-ing forward, likely strong 2HCY13 results on the back of higher demand should keep interest alive in the sector while subdued gas supply risk to ENGRO and higher DAP primary margins for FFBL should result in robust bottomline growth for these compa-nies. Moreover, the government has held back its decision to increase gas tariffs for the industry likely due to crop supply concerns from the recent flash floods, which should also pacify uncertainty as to the ability of local players to pass on a substantial cost hike. At current levels, ENGRO and FFBL remain our top picks in the sector with re-spective TPs of PkR199/share and PkR53/share.

CPI Preview Aug’13 and discount rate outlook, ( Aug 27, 2013)
Within the backdrop of the postponement of the MPS announcement to Sep 13'13, os-tensibly to await fresh inflation data, we expect upcoming Aug'13 CPI to register at 8.7%YoY/1.3%MoM. This will make 2MFY14 CPI average 8.5%YoY, implying a posi-tive real interest rate of 0.5%. Uptick in inflationary pressures is expected on the back of 1) increased food and fuel prices and 2)  macro slippages with a weaker PkR and currency printing. In this regard, we expect 1QFY14 CPI to broadly average 8.5%YoY and come close to double digits in 2QFY14. Provided the PkR/US$ parity does not ex-hibit excessive weakness, we believe the  SBP may find reason to keep interest rates on hold in Sep'13. That said, the monetary tightening cycle may not be delayed beyond Nov'13 where we see interest rates settling in the early double digits for the next year or so. As a result, we continue to believe that sector allocations should now gradually begin to reflect higher weights for Banks and E&Ps, two key sectors that are poised for a strong rebound in earnings growth next year. We also maintain a preference for Chemicals and selected Cements.     

Banks: Big-5 1HCY13 Review & Outlook, ( Aug 26, 2013)
Most banking sector results are out with the Big-5 banks posting combined consoli-dated NPAT of PkR43.92bn in 1HCY13 vs. combined 1HCY12 NPAT of PKR48.98bn in 1HCY12, translating into a 10%YoY decline. Combined 2QCY13 NPAT of PkR21.67bn is lower by just 3%QoQ despite tighter regulations on savings a/c coming into play. Key takeaways of reported 1HCY13 earnings include 1) 7%YoY decline in Net Interest In-come, 2) 16%YoY increase in total provisions, 3) 8%YoY growth in non-interest income and 4) 8%YoY increase in non-interest expenses. On reported earnings basis, MCB (NPAT +7%YoY) was the key outperformer while NBP (NPAT -30%YoY) was the standout laggard. That said, results were mostly inline with our expectations with NBP being the only below-line posting and that too due to subjective provisions pertaining to Bangladesh operations. Going forward, we continue to believe that interest rates will average higher in CY14F. As a result, with asset quality seemingly under control, we tentatively eye Big-5 earnings growth of an impressive 15%YoY+ in CY14F where we prefer BAFL, UBL and ABL.

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